Publication: Probabilistic analysis of projects viability
Дата
2019
Авторы
Kostogryzov, A. I.
Zubarev, I. V.
Nistratov, A. A.
Nistratov, G. A.
Atakishchev, O. I.
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© 2019 for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).There are proposed probabilistic approach for analysis of projects viability in application to developed and used systems. The measures for projects viability analysis during given time are estimated by probability of maintaining viability, risk of non-viability, mathematical expectation of projects profitableness, relative projects profitableness. Project viability is researched in dependence on the expected frequency of real critical influences on viability of system (defining the beginning of influencing), mean time before viability loss (when an “admissible level of viability” may be lost after the beginning of influencing), the mean time of recovering admissible viability, time between the end of previous viability system analysis and the beginning of the next one, the time of system viability analysis, system profitableness in time unit during maintaining viability and during the time of viability loss (there may be damages), given time for prediction, the given minimum of profitableness. Some possibilities of the proposed probabilistic analysis of projects and portfolio viability are demonstrated by examples of development and operation of football stadiums.
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Probabilistic analysis of projects viability / Kostogryzov, A.I. [et al.] // CEUR Workshop Proceedings. - 2019. - 2514. - P. 56-65