Publication:
MULTIDIMENSIONAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME INDICES IN THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR THE PROBLEM OF SYNTHESIS OF THE CRIMINOGENIC LEVEL'S ESTIMATION

Дата
2019
Авторы
Prikazchikova, Galina S.
Demchenko, Svetlana A.
Yarimaka, Svetlana K.
Prikazchikova, Anastasia S.
Aslanov, Roman E.
Journal Title
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Volume Title
Издатель
Научные группы
Организационные подразделения
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Организационная единица
Институт интеллектуальных кибернетических систем
Цель ИИКС и стратегия развития - это подготовка кадров, способных противостоять современным угрозам и вызовам, обладающих знаниями и компетенциями в области кибернетики, информационной и финансовой безопасности для решения задач разработки базового программного обеспечения, повышения защищенности критически важных информационных систем и противодействия отмыванию денег, полученных преступным путем, и финансированию терроризма.
Выпуск журнала
Аннотация
The authors present an adaptation of one of factor analysis methods for the purposes of synthesis in the evaluation of the criminogenic level in Russian Federal Districts based on the official data from the Federal State Statistics Service. They have proved the effectiveness of using the principal component method to solve this problem. The interpretation of obtained results is of paramount importance in the application of this method. The authors, together with the leading expert analysts of the Chief Information and Analytics Center of Russian Ministry of the Interior, used original data and the rule of "logical fraction" to interpret principal components. They suggest using the first principal component, that contributes 90 % of the general dispersion, to synthesize the estimation of the criminogenic situation. They also put forward the following hypotheses regarding the second principal component and the character of its connection with the original predictors (crime indices). Since the greatest positive correlation of the second principal component is observed for the features "murder", "rape", "malicious grave bodily harm", "crimes committed with the participation of minors", and a small negative correlation - for the features "theft", "robbery", "economic crimes", "plunder", this component is responsible for the direction of the crime: human life and health or property and property relations. Besides, the second principal component has a negative correlation with the population of the Federation's subject. Such correlation is interpreted in the following way: the smaller the population of a Federal District is, the higher is the damage from illegal activities. The authors have also developed a methodology of visualizing the information on the criminogenic situation in the subjects of the Russian Federation. The first principal component is used for color coding the criminogenic level and compiling a map of the criminogenic situation.
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Цитирование
MULTIDIMENSIONAL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF CRIME INDICES IN THE SUBJECTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION FOR THE PROBLEM OF SYNTHESIS OF THE CRIMINOGENIC LEVEL'S ESTIMATION / Prikazchikova, GalinaS [et al.] // Russian journal of criminology. - 2019. - 13. - № 1. - P. 18-29;. - 10.17150/2500-4255.2019.13(1).18-29
URI
https://www.doi.org/10.17150/2500-4255.2019.13(1).18-29
 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85067887068&origin=resultslist
 http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=Alerting&SrcApp=Alerting&DestApp=WOS_CPL&DestLinkType=FullRecord&UT=WOS:000459734400002
 https://openrepository.mephi.ru/handle/123456789/16609
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