Publication: Event Analysis: Application in Social Forecasting
| creativeworkseries.issn | 2079-3537 | |
| dc.contributor.author | Korenkova, T. V. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Artamonov, A. A. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Ulizko, M. S. | |
| dc.contributor.author | Артамонов, Алексей Анатольевич | |
| dc.contributor.author | Улизко, Михаил Сергеевич | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-12-26T14:03:35Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-12-26T14:03:35Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2024 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Monitoring the interrelationships between social events and phenomena and forecasting the dynamics of their changes are necessary in the conditions of instability of the modern world. There are many separate methods of analysis for social forecasting, however, for this research, the method of event analysis has been chosen, which is insufficiently considered in the scientific literature within the framework of this task, but has high potential. The purpose of the article is to adapt the event analysis methodology for its use as a social forecasting tool. The main data for the study was collected from the Russian information and news resource in the period 2020-2023. Based on the classical methodology of event analysis, the classifiers presented in this paper in the form of social spheres are defined in the research. As part of the analytical comparison stage, a graph analysis was carried out (graphs of relationships between categories were constructed, central nodes-categories were identified); time series analysis was performed (segmentation of time series by the PELT algorithm, clustering of time series by the k-means algorithm); key terms for press events were defined. The final product is an analytical dashboard with filters, statistics and interactive graphs. The analytical dashboard makes it possible to compare data in a static and dynamic state, to draw conclusions about the past and future states of objects of social forecasting. The main result of the research is the event analysis methodology developed by the author, which can be used for a comprehensive analysis of news streams, adapted to the necessary categories representing a certain entity or sphere, and applied in various social organizations or monitoring services. | |
| dc.identifier.citation | T. V. Korenkova, A. A. Artamonov, M. S. Ulizko. Event Analysis: Application in Social Forecasting (2024). Scientific Visualization 16.4: 43 - 58, DOI: 10.26583/sv.16.4.05 | |
| dc.identifier.doi | 10.26583/sv.16.4.05 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://openrepository.mephi.ru/handle/123456789/29081 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://sv-journal.org/2024-4/05/ | |
| dc.publisher | НИЯУ МИФИ | |
| dc.subject | PELT | |
| dc.subject | Time series clustering | |
| dc.subject | Time series segmentation | |
| dc.subject | Time series analysis | |
| dc.subject | Centrality calculation | |
| dc.subject | Graph analysis | |
| dc.subject | News analysis | |
| dc.subject | Event analysis | |
| dc.subject | Social forecasting | |
| dc.title | Event Analysis: Application in Social Forecasting | |
| dc.type | Article | |
| dspace.entity.type | Publication | |
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