2020, Kazakova, N. A., Sivkova, A. E., Kuzmina-Merlino, I., Kogdenko, V. G., Когденко, Вера Геннадьевна

© 2020, "Ore and Metals" Publishing house. All rights reserved.The study is aimed at assessing and forecasting the economic sustainability of Russian metallurgical companies based on Harvard branch analysis methods adapted to the industry. The proposed methodology includes two stages: identifying trends and key risk factors for industry sus-tainability based on the analysis of major companies activities; adjustment of forecasts of economic sustainability for individual metallurgical companies based on the risk-based approach. At the first stage, the results of the study revealed both positive and negative factors affecting the economic stability of companies in the metallurgical industry. Among the positive processes, it should be noted: the increase in the exports share of the metallurgical industry (14%), the decrease in depreciation of fixed assets to 40%, the increase in the digitalization of business processes, the increase in the operational efficiency and financial activity of major companies, the reduction in the number of bankruptcies and liquidation of businesses. To understand industry trends, the analysis of the largest companies has been carried out, which indicates positive trends in cost management, circulating capital and asset utilization. Industry analysis made it possible to identify key risk factors for reducing investment activity and economic stability: environmental security risk, high political risk due to economic sanctions, uncertainty in world markets and, as a result, high volatility of demand and prices for products and raw materials, insufficient capacity utilization; strategic risks of investments in energy and resource-saving technologies and industrial safety; risks of aggressive dividend policy. The second stage of the analysis was to update forecasts of the economic sustainability of individual metallurgical companies, not belonging to the largest ones, but included in the group of public, socially significant for specific territories or single-industry towns from the position of importance in their socio-economic development, having a unique specialization of activity and therefore priority in attracting investment. Interpretation of the obtained results proved their comparability with calculations based on the known discriminant models. At the same time, the assessment turned out to be more unequivocal and refined, which is essential for the substantiation of investment objects, the development of regional investment programs, including the development of medium and small businesses. The novelty of the author’s approach consists in integrating the methods used in industry and microeconomic studies to assess the economic sustainability of socially significant metallurgical companies, highlighting new enlarged areas of industry research, as well as developing the new risk-based approach to sub-stantiate indicators and their significance in a point-rating evaluation system.