Publication:
An estimative (warning) model for recognition of pandemic nature of virus infections

Дата
2023
Авторы
Vigdorowitsch, M.
Kudryashov, N. A.
Chmykhov, M.
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Научные группы
Организационные подразделения
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Институт лазерных и плазменных технологий
Стратегическая цель Института ЛаПлаз – стать ведущей научной школой и ядром развития инноваций по лазерным, плазменным, радиационным и ускорительным технологиям, с уникальными образовательными программами, востребованными на российском и мировом рынке образовательных услуг.
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Аннотация
© 2021 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston 2021.A simple SIS-type mathematical model of infection expansion is presented and analysed with focus on the case SARS-Cov-2. It takes into account two processes, namely, infection and recovery/decease characterised by two parameters in total: contact rate and recovery/decease rate. Its solution has a form of a quasi-logistic function for which we have introduced an infection index that, should it become negative, can also be considered as a recovery/decease index with decrease of infected down to zero. Based on the data from open sources for the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic, seasonal influenza epidemics and a pandemic in the fauna world, a threshold value of the infection index has been shown to exist above which an infection expansion pretends to be considered as pandemic. Lean (two-parameter) SIR models affined with the warning SIS model have been built. Their general solutions have been obtained, analysed and shown to be a priori structurally adjusted to the infectives' peak in epidemiological data.
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Цитирование
Vigdorowitsch, M. An estimative (warning) model for recognition of pandemic nature of virus infections / Vigdorowitsch, M., Kudryashov, N.A., Chmykhov, M. // International Journal of Nonlinear Sciences and Numerical Simulation. - 2023. - 10.1515/ijnsns-2020-0154
URI
https://www.doi.org/10.1515/ijnsns-2020-0154
 https://www.scopus.com/record/display.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85107075635&origin=resultslist
 http://gateway.webofknowledge.com/gateway/Gateway.cgi?GWVersion=2&SrcAuth=Alerting&SrcApp=Alerting&DestApp=WOS_CPL&DestLinkType=FullRecord&UT=WOS:000738255500002
 https://openrepository.mephi.ru/handle/123456789/29839
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