Publication: Моделироввание операционных и инвестиционных денежных потоков компании на примере ПАО "Корпорация ВСМПО АВИСМА"
Дата
2020
Авторы
Семенихина, М. А.
Journal Title
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Издатель
Аннотация
The subject of the research is operational and investment cash flows and elements of their formation. The object of the research is the financial and economic activities of PJSC VSMPO AVISMA Corporation. The purpose of this master's dissertation is to analyze, build a model of cash flows at risk and determine the value of the business as a whole. The simulation of net operating cash flow at risk in this work is performed using computer simulation of macroeconomic and market factors with a given covariance structure using the Monte Carlo method. According to the results, the expected value of the company's net operating cash flow in 2020 is 38,065,885, while there is a 90% probability that this indicator will be lower than the expected value by 22,547,168 thousand rubles. In that way, the CFaR level is 41% in 2020 and 56% in the 2021 forecast year. In the 2021 forecast year, the expected operating cash flow is 27,287,846 thousand rubles. Analysis of the sensitivity of net investment cash flow to factors such as the company's production volume, the price of ilmenite and the rate of inflation growth showed that the greatest sensitivity of net investment cash flow is associated with factors such as changes in the price of ilmenite and changes in production volumes. Based on the results obtained, the conclusion is as follows: the organization's activities in the field of cash flows are effective, using the cash flow model it was determined that the cash flow is subject to high risk.
Описание
Уровень образования: магистратура; Код направления/специальности: 38.04.01; Группа: М18-701
Ключевые слова
ВКР , Выпускная квалификационная работа
Цитирование
Семенихина, М. А. Моделироввание операционных и инвестиционных денежных потоков компании на примере ПАО "Корпорация ВСМПО АВИСМА" : Выпускная квалификационная работа, магистратура, 38.04.01 / М. А. Семенихина ; рук. работы Когденко Вера Геннадьевна, 2020